San Juan Mountains Weather Report–Tuesday January 31, 2012–09:40
A short wave trough will pass near the 4-corners this afternoon and bring maybe an “angry inch” of snow to the San Juans. This disturbance departs quickly then a short wave ridge of high pressure moves into western Colorado with clearing skies after midnight.
A more energetic storm system will arrive in the Great Basin tomorrow (Wednesday) and begin to affect eastern Utah/western Colorado by late Wed. evening. With little wind the orographic forcing over the mountains will be minimal so little snow (a few inches) is expected.
The strongest in the series of short waves will push through the Great Basin on Thursday and the trough should split with a closed low pinching off near the 4-corners by late in the afternoon then migrates into the panhandle by Friday. One model has the low, stalling over Kansas keeping wraparound moisture pushing back into Colorado through Sunday morning. (???)
This final storm in several “world views” seems to have all the necessary ingredients; relatively deep moisture, vorticity and cold cloud temperatures producing snow through Saturday morning, but where the low moves and what it does will determine the outcome.
Dry weather and high pressure should return Sunday and Monday.