San Juan Mountains Weather Forecast–Tuesday February 28, 2012–14:00

As this system moves east the back side of the trough winds will gradually shift from SW to WNW with tightening pressure gradients in the surface low.  This storm is still affecting the north San Juans, but will be moving out soon with residual snow falling in the mountains tonight, then a short lived ridge of high pressure will build late this evening & Wednesday.

A NW trough with deep Pacific moisture will surge into the area Wednesday night and Thursday with another cold front dropping southeast through the area.  By Thursday morning the flow/winds will shift to NW from SW as the front passes accompanied by strong winds and orographics pushing ahead of the system as the cold front barrels south into the SJ’s late in the day .

The four models I look at are not in agreement with timing, but three of the four show a good combination of moisture, orographics and storm dynamics ushering in what looks to be another decent storm.  The northern San Juan’s should be favored with 6-12″ of snow.

By Friday the storm will begin to wind down as the atmosphere begins to dry out with below normal temperatures on Friday then gradual warming through the weekend.