Monsoon moisture should arrive in the San Juans later this week …


National Weather Service, Grand Junction forecast discussion

LONG TERM…(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Just a bit ahead of schedule, monsoonal moisture deepens across
much of the forecast area by Thursday.

The Four Corners High remains through these periods. Starting
Wednesday though, disturbances working through the ridge dominate
our weather. The inverted trough over southern California on
Tuesday begins to climb up the western edge of the High into the
Great Basin. It shears into the central forecast area Wednesday
into Thursday. Deeper moisture, precipitable water over 1.00 inch,
also works to just north of the Four Corners on Tuesday spreading
to near the Wyoming border by late Thursday.

For this forecast, raised late-day and nocturnal POPs above
guidance. Also shaved diurnal temperature spread under increased
clouds and showers. Surges of moisture with upper-level forcing
often also produce widespread gusty late-day winds. Wind speeds
were also pushed but remain rather low for now.

Friday-Sunday, the ridge axis remains over the Rockies but is
further elongated from the West Coast into the Central Plains.
Available moisture remains elevated, near 1 inch on Friday perhaps
eroding to around 0.8 inch over the weekend. This is more than was
progged yesterday. Passing disturbances will have a large impact
on weather with a general unsettled forecast for now.

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