San Juan Monsoon Forecast from Joe

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Hi Jerry,

Anyway decent moisture is centered just to your west over southeast Utah. Precipitable water values are over an inch and will remain there through Friday then degrade into next week. Though instability is marginal, a few storms have tapped into this deep moisture. Meeker airport reported 0.32 inches just after noon today and Highway 145 into Telluride has mudslides across the road. It doesn’t take much for that highway though. I think its more a function of rate of fall.

As for the remainder of the monsoon season, here are some thoughts from Kyle Mosely, a forecaster at the Pueblo office:
So starting back in April I mentioned that the monsoon didn’t appear to have any triggers and would like be very late, or non-existent. So far, its been pretty non-existent. I finally got a look at the OLR model I use to predict monsoon onset, by using waves coming off the African coast as a trigger mechanism. The model indicates we may finally see a true monsoon onset in the August 8-13 time frame. The OLR model indicates a rather robust equatorial wave coming off Africa which should help trigger the monsoon moisture tap, finally opening up the desert southwest. The model also indicates that it will likely persist until about Sept 22. The CFSv2 is also hinting at a consistent monsoon pattern developing by early August. Hopefully this will bring an increase of shower and thunderstorm activity to the mountains. The bad news, the hot weather looks to remain in place with no relief for much of southern Colorado. Given how dry its been, we may need to pay particular attention to lightning starts at the monsoon onset, as fuels may take time to moisten.

The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook that comes out tomorrow, Thursday, will show no tilt of odds towards wetter than normal for August or any of the three month “seasons” through the fall and winter. Climate history here says La Ninas (60% probability of occurrence next winter) tend to produce a dry fall and a wet January favoring NW Colorado.

Interesting times!

Happy Birthday to Lisa!

Best,
Joe

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