Monsoon moisture (1″ of precipitable water) will begin moving north over Arizona and western N.M. today. 50-60% chance of rain and T-storms this afternoon above TL. Tuesday seems to have a similar pattern as today as monsoonal moisture begins to push into the San Juans. Tuesday begins with 40 % chance of rain increasing throughout the afternoon to 60%.
Long term Tuesday evening through Sunday, a closed low moves onshore in the Pacific NW late Tuesday and will force the high pressure currently over the Rockies to the east. Flow will become southwesterly. The trough should arrive in the 4-corners region by Wednesday/Thursday so anticipate increased rain in the high country. The monsoonal plume should be in good position on it’s northward march on Thursday/Friday but by Sunday/Monday several models show a drying for our area.