Today and Saturday will be mostly sunny, dry and cool, but by Saturday evening a low pressure trough coming onshore in southern Cal will move into our forecast area on southwest flow (drawing in juicy subtropical moisture like the last storm) bringing increasing cloudiness, strong winds and snow to the San Juans. We could see between 8 – 20″ of new snow above TL on southwest aspects with the lower elevations receiving rain/sleet early in the storm then turning to snow as the temps drop and the storm progresses.
The storm’s initial strength begins Saturday night and will continue through Sunday morning traveling on SW flow with a 170 kt jet overhead creating strong ridge top winds in the 40’s & upward providing good orographic lift for efficient snow production. By late Sunday wind direction shifts to the WSW. This could bring 6-12″ of snow or more through Sunday night on favored slopes above 11,000′. Monday & Tuesday the backside of the trough will be moving west to east switching winds from SW to NW with precipitation favoring the NNW terrain of the San Juans like RMP and even Telluride.
We’ll see brief high pressure clearing on Wednesday then Thursday through the weekend possibly another storm coming our way. That far out is a bit of a stretch for an accurate forecast right now and the models show the storm tracking south of us through Arizona and New Mexico, but that can change quickly.