San Juan Mountains Weather Forecast ~ Thursday, 1/12/17 @ 10:00

The next component of this week’s moisture flow has the potential of decent snowfall for the San Juans.  A low currently forming off the California coast, drops south and eventually turns into a cut-off low.  It will then travel east along the Arizona/N.M. border through the weekend.  Models are not in agreement concerning this upcoming event because these lows are not easy to forecast.  Some of the difficulties in forecasting a cut off-low occurs because it breaks away from the predominate west to east zonal flow, meanders/wobbles around like a failing top, moves slowly and can be very unpredictable.

Mountain terrain above 11,000′ should see 5-10″ with the potential of a foot of snow through Friday with warm air being a big influence again with this storm that will cause rain/snow combo in the lower elevations below 8,000′.  We’ll see moist unsettled weather with snow into the weekend then the wandering border low will move east into the Rio Grand Valley. Check out the University of Utah snow forecast below for a wide variety of snow totals ranging from 20 – 70″!  Leaves one lacking confidence in the models and chanting the conservative republican mantra.

Next week looks dry until late week, ugh, Inauguration Day with models showing more unsettled weather, but there aren’t enough details this far out to make any sense of it.

~~~~~~~~~

2017-01-12.006.jpeg

~~~

gfs_500_4panel1.gif

 

2017-01-12.004.gif

sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif

2017-01-11-0.png

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s