San Juan Mountains Weather Forecast ~ Wednesday, 1/18/17 @ 10:30

Today through Thursday morning we’ll see warmer temps and Colorado blue skies with increasing  cloudiness by mid day, then late Thursday the first in a series of three storms will enter western Colorado and run through Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. The early storms will bring relatively small amounts of snow (8-16″)to the San Juans but models predict all three storms combined should bring abundant moisture. The San Juans should see according to models between 15-25″ or more above 11,000′(see graph below). The updated graph 1/19/17 below show more snow for the San Juans.  Up to 80″!  I’d tone it down a little and subtract 20-30″ from that # which is still a big snow total.

2017-01-19.002.jpeg

The closer the graphed lines are together is sign of model confidence in snow totals for the 20 model predictions … The further apart the outlier graph lines are the less confidence in their forecasted snow totals. rōbert

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Expect the first storm’s high country snow to begin Thursday night in the SJ’s with southwest flow and continue through Saturday. The second disturbance will have a west-northwest flow beginning late Saturday continuing into Sunday morning and looks to be a more robust snow producer.

Models show the third storm impulse should arrive late Sunday/early Monday morning and string out possibly into mid week. The final act should cover most of our western Colorado mountains with zonal flow. This potentially stronger storm is a few days out so with change being the constant, forecasts will probably alter in the time period.

Looking into the future with an extended forecast view of 8-14 days show a drying atmosphere with high pressure dominating the Great American West.

sat_ir_enh_west_loop-12.gif

 

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2017-01-18.003.jpeg

January storms brought us from nearly no snow in mid-November to 150% of average now in mid-January. We have reached 80% of our average peak snowpack in Colorado. OpenSnow.

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