San Juan Mountains Weather Forecast ~ Wednesday, 1/18/17 @ 10:30

Today through Thursday morning we’ll see warmer temps and Colorado blue skies with increasing  cloudiness by mid day, then late Thursday the first in a series of three storms will enter western Colorado and run through Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. The early storms will bring relatively small amounts of snow (8-16″)to the San Juans but models predict all three storms combined should bring abundant moisture. The San Juans should see according to models between 15-25″ or more above 11,000′(see graph below). The updated graph 1/19/17 below show more snow for the San Juans.  Up to 80″!  I’d tone it down a little and subtract 20-30″ from that # which is still a big snow total.


The closer the graphed lines are together is sign of model confidence in snow totals for the 20 model predictions … The further apart the outlier graph lines are the less confidence in their forecasted snow totals. rōbert


Expect the first storm’s high country snow to begin Thursday night in the SJ’s with southwest flow and continue through Saturday. The second disturbance will have a west-northwest flow beginning late Saturday continuing into Sunday morning and looks to be a more robust snow producer.

Models show the third storm impulse should arrive late Sunday/early Monday morning and string out possibly into mid week. The final act should cover most of our western Colorado mountains with zonal flow. This potentially stronger storm is a few days out so with change being the constant, forecasts will probably alter in the time period.

Looking into the future with an extended forecast view of 8-14 days show a drying atmosphere with high pressure dominating the Great American West.





January storms brought us from nearly no snow in mid-November to 150% of average now in mid-January. We have reached 80% of our average peak snowpack in Colorado. OpenSnow.

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