San Juan Mountains Weather Forecast ~ Monday, November 6, 2017 @ 07:50

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A complex storm system is brewing to the west with the northern and southern jets converging over the central mountains late today. By the time it reaches Colorado all mountains should received some snow with the San Juans looking at 4-8″ and up to a foot (or more) on southwest facing terrain above 10,000′ by Wed. morning. Clearing begins Wednesday then the next chance of precip will be the weekend but not favoring the San Juans.

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By late tonight/early Tuesday a southern front will push into our mountains with potentially good precipitation until dry air cuts off the snow fall and possibly turns to rain especially in the lower elevations below 9,000′. The storm is temperature dependent and without cold air could be a bust for snow. One certainty, there will be winds.

Models are all over the place with several showing decent precipitation and other trending toward warmer temps, less snow.

~~~~~~~~~~~

OpenSnow

Especially when models do not agree, it’s best to look at an average of many models. Here is the European ensemble forecast, which is an average of 51 versions of the European model.

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The green bars show the average snow forecast across the 51 versions.

The southern mountains, including Purgatory and Wolf Creek, are trending toward 6-9 inches. This supports the trend of dropping the heaviest snow in the southern mountains.

 

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