San Juan Mountains Weather Forecast ~ Tuesday, January , 2018 @ 08:39

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Looking into the five day future shows mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures with the continuation of the ridge of high pressure blocking incoming weather in southwest Colorado until Saturday. Then a fairly large low seems to push underneath the high & moves into Colorado from the Great Basin bringing some moisture (3-6″) maybe more on WSW aspects above TL), then the persistent high rebuilds over the west and we’re back to dry conditions for a few days with another low making it’s way into our mountains around Jan. 11th.

Most weather models point to Sat. evening for the arrival of the low pressure system and continues into late Sunday. The Canadian and European models that I have more faith in are in agreement for a Sat. evening/Sunday storm. But following the potential Jan. 11th disturbance the models indicate a return to the dry pattern where we’ve be stuck since mid-Oct.. Back to our usual January drought we see most years?? … something i don’t really want to think about.

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RMP study plot 1/2/18.  A lot of storm board measuring & sweeping over the years! Colin Mitchel photo

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Looking at 46 years of RMP snow data 1971-2017, the winter of 1976-77 is the ‘Gold Standard’ for dry/drought conditions. Nov./Dec. 1976 totaled 23″ and Nov./Dec. 2017 totaled 17.5″. Hope for change! For an in-depth view of what is going on with our weather check out Wasatch Weather Weenies world view called Parade of ‘Synoptic Debris’ continues into 2018.

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Wasatch Weather Weenies
The use of average conditions often obscures important aspects of the day-to day variability.  Thus, I put together a long loop of daily dynamic tropopause (jet level) analyses covering November and December.  The one thing to take away from this is how high amplitude (i.e., “wavy”) the jet-stream pattern has been across the entire Northern Hemisphere.  We see some troughs moving across the western U.S., but they are often cut-off or strung out.  I call these troughs “synoptic debris.”  Sometimes they can produce some snow for us, but this is a pattern that by and large is not one favoring frequent heavy snowfalls in northern Utah.
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2 thoughts on “San Juan Mountains Weather Forecast ~ Tuesday, January , 2018 @ 08:39

  1. We remember well that dry winter of 1976-77. We hiked up Sultan on New Year’s Day if I remember correctly, and we did a lot of ice skating that winter.

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