San Juan Mountains Weather Forecast ~ Wednesday, February 14, 2018 @ 09:30

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As our last storm exits the area we have another entering the San Juan on SW flow with decent moisture, a 140 kt subtropical jet mixing with a cold front (polar jet to our north). We should see light snow flurries later today in the high country then tonight the storm kicks in as the trough of low pressure moves just upstream (southwest) of our mountains … We could see 8-12″ (more in some places) of snow on southwest aspects above 11,000′.

The large trough sliding down the West coast will bring in warm subtropical Pacific moisture and when mixed with the cold front and orographic lift from the windy conditions should bring good snow fall tonight through mid day Thursday.

We’ll then have a brief clearing Friday and Saturday before the next disturbance arrives late Sunday or early Monday morning. The european model shows a impressive storm with a strong jet that will track further south than two other models show. This would put the San Juans in the bullseye on Monday/Tuesday but it’s too far out to have any confidence.

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Tonight

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GFS – US – 500mb – Loop

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