Spring is a tough time for long range outlooks. The westerlies are retreating northward. and the subtropical moisture is still languishing way south in the lower latitudes. It makes sense that May-June is our driest time of the year. When the monsoon moisture will arrive is near impossible to predict at this point. Though as I have theorized before, low snowpack tends to lead to warmer early-summer temperatures which helps pull the moisture into the region earlier. Let’s hope so. This could be a bad fire season for the desert SW including southern Colorado where snowpack is going downhill fast. Upper Colorado Region Snow Pack Condition Map
The longer outlook is for a tilt of odds towards warm and wet for May, then warm and dry for May-June-July. Seasonal Outlooks.
La Nina is as good as dead, with the temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region exactly at “normal” (attached pic 1). Looking into next cold season, the highest odds are for El Nino (attached pic 2) which favors the Four Corners with winter precipitation.