NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for what’s likely to come in the next few months.
Long-range forecasts are rarely accurate. These forecasts cover three months. Watching 1-10 day forecast is the most accurate of forecasts.
NOAA’s Temperature Outlook during December, January, and February:
Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. SEE Alaska Blob
No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.
NOAA’s Precipitation Outlook during December, January, and February:
Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the US and up into the Mid-Atlantic.
Drier-than-average conditions are likely across the northern Rockies.
El Niño, La Niña, La Nada?
NOAA’s ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
El Niño has a 70-75% chance of developing before winter sets in.
“We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”