San Juan Mountians Snow & Weather Nowcast

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Well, a new ski season is happening and the San Juan snowpack is so typical.  Early October snowfall, cold mean daily air temperatures that drive the faceting & weakening of the new snow and early season backcountry folks who are looking for happiness of the turning ski…

Too often many backcountry riders don’t have their guard up yet.  Mostly thinking of the turn, suffering from ‘POWDER SHOCK‘.  They’re not using their avalanche eyeballs yet.

Already a death this past week (one in the Montana avalanche) with the new snow and high winds which are two important variables that are often ignored/discounted or not yet morphed into thoughts or warnings because of powder shock and maybe the stampede of the herd mentality.

One needs to think before chasing the turn.  It’s a new year and each year is a new experiment.  Most folks put new batteries in their transceivers, check that their bindings aren’t set on FEMUR & stock up on ski swap woolies, but somehow don’t spend as much time considering the changing environmental variables or reining in ego and desire…  Make your forecast for the day, but rely on your NOWCASTING skills for an ever-changing environment.  Be there now…

chant the conservative Republican mantra…..               J.R.

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Mark Rawsthorne photo

Weather information from forecaster Joe Ramey, Mountain Weather Masters

Mountain Weather Masters

Mike Halpart from the CPC always does a good seasonal outlook presentation. I like the way he explains probabilistic forecasts.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=cogg59V6PL0

La Nina chances are increasing. La Ninas have typically produced a dry fall and spring in Colorado, with a snowy heart of winter favoring northern Colorado.

Meanwhile in the nearer term, warm conditions are favored across the southern tier of states with the storm track expected to set up over the northern Rockies as we head towards winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif

These monthly and seasonal precipitation outlooks often update on the last day of the month, so check back then.

I hope you are enjoying this mild dry fall.

Joe, on green  Kauai where the drought isn’t evident to my desert-calibrated eyes

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